Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 17, 2019

March 17, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Expert 2.00 1.5 3-1
1.5 3-1
4 4 Trustworthy 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Potomac 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Binkster 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Where’s Rudy 1.20 2.5 5-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Our Honor 0.80 1.5 3-1
9 9 Fitzwillie 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Shiloh Lane 20.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Seediskid 6.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Bourbon Boy 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Eddy Dirt 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Huracan 30.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Freudian Analyst 30.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Shook Em Up 15.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Gander S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ventus 50.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Captain Frost 6.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Kosciuszko 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 2 Pipes 1.80 1.7 3-1
6 4 Durkin’s Call 3.50 2.1 4-1
5 3 Kadens Courage 3.00 2.2 4-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Stilts 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Tri Saint Lorenzo 4.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 War Tocsin 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Superhighway 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Manipulate 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Halstaat 30.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tariff Tantrum 20.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Spice Road 5.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cotton Candy Cutie 3.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 Beyond Discreet 4.00 1.5 3-1
1.7 3-1
5 5 Smiles From Sadie 0.60 1.8 3-1
1 1 Turn and Bern 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Peaches and Spice 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Dancingwthdaffodls 15.00 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I Saw It All 6.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Light the Posse 5.00 1.5 3-1
3 2 Deputy Flag 2.00 1.8 3-1
7 6 Preston Court 6.00 2 4-1
8 7 Roseboro 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Suremoney 15.00 3 6-1
9 8 Freudian Sip 20.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Apex Predator 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Well in Tune 50.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Roll Tide 30.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 La Cat Warrior 1.20 SCRATCH
7 6 Flatexcel 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Take It to Scale 15.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 Adirondack Dream 6.00 2.3 4-1
8 7 Manifest Destiny 20.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Ultimateenticement 20.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Hopper Dropper 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Prince Slaughter 30.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Speightful Kitten 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Ready to Escape 1.60 1 2-1
6 5 Morning Breez 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 8 Candid Desire 8.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Sicilia Mike 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Sudden Surprise 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 Five Star Bunt 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 P J Advantage 15.00 4 7-1
3 2 Formal Start 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Aly’s Courage 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 My Sage 20.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Midnitesalright 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 6 First Forever 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Tousled 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Charming Cara 8.00 2.5 5-1
11 9 Queendom 10.00 2.8 5-1
13 11 Flat Out Funky 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Emmy Knows 15.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Crick 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Flattering Eyes 15.00 4.8 9-1
12 10 Intersect 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Marie’s Tuff 20.00 5.6 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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