Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 14, 2019

February 14, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Just Mallory 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lil Kylie 3.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Labelhermypal 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Emery’s Dream 3.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Lil’ Sister Lou 4.00 4.4 8-1
1A 6 Te Na Na 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Tiz Darby 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Strikingly Smart 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 8 Labruna 8.00 6.7 13-1
6 7 Honest Road 20.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Wilderness Gate 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Commanding Candy 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Trip Candy 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Par One 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Blue Rooster 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Cube 4.50 4.5 8-1
3 3 Shackleford Road 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Magnum Maduro 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Optimal 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Street Treasure 12.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Civil 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Spectactical 4.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Fortythreeoeight N 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Buddy Rocket 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Hawaiin Warrior 4.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Dialect 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Raise Em Up 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rachael Got Even 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Spark Joy 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ruthless Child 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Big Red Rose 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 6 Havennow 5.00 4 8-1
10 8 Bing’s d’Oro 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 She’s a Fine Dime 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 7 Weightlessness 10.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Soco Unbridled 20.00 6 11-1
12 10 Oh Bette 5.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Lady’s Tribute 30.00 6.6 13-1
11 9 Hallowed Lassie 30.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lil Blinkey 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Card Shark 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Mikey’s Mouse 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Kye’s Addycat 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 7 Lion Rampant 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Horace Charles 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Seaside Sergeant 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Tick Tock Tizzy 6.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bronco Sally 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Unapologetic Me 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Beautiful Ballad 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Desert Ride 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Soul Planet 6.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Spider Dance 4.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Tryon Summer 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Delachaise 8.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ballyhack 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Baja Viper 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Oro de Tejano 1.60 4.3 8-1
4 4 Aladdin’s Temple 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Charcoal 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 He’s a Climber 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Smithwick 30.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Famous Pen Pal 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Moti 15.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Taleoftwofriends 10.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Just in Tee 15.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Reverend Aj 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Milk Chocolate 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Bye Bye Birdstone 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Taste for Talent 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Mula Mano 10.00 5.2 10-1
10 9 A Song for Arch 5.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Risky Steps 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Im a Patriot 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Psychic Energy 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Let’s Go Mick 12.00 7 13-1
11 10 Trappezoid 10.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rule Taylor Rule 3.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Cool Sis 3.50 3.4 7-1
1 1 Kris T. 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Meister Missy 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Kenai Beauty 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Over Tipped 6.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 The Missing Piece 10.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Loranger Linda 20.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Honduras Girl 10.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Runaway Rae 20.00 7.8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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